US Oil Rig Forecast
A weekly forecast of the change in the US oil rig count — with a public, honest record. We show the misses.
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Cumulative skill — live track record
Running MAE, our model vs the persistence baseline (predicting “no change”). Live period only — separate from the backtest.
● model● persistence
The honesty table — last 26 weeks
| Week | Forecast | 80% range | Actual | Direction | In range |
|---|
